Briefing highlights
- Rise in life expectancy slowing
- Behind the cannabis stock frenzy
- Markets at a glance
- Ontario deficit wider than forecast
- Inflation eases, still above target
Rate of increase slows
The rise in life expectancy in Canada is slowing.
Relax, Canadians are still living longer. But “there is a recent slowing trend in the pace of increases in life expectancy at ages 65, 75 and 85 for both males and females,” the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions said in its latest report on the Old Age Security Program.
The numbers come from the federal regulator’s “mortality experience fact sheet,” which looks at mortality among OAS beneficiaries, of importance to those such as actuaries.
Life Expectancy of OAS Beneficiaries
Without future mortality improvements
Age 65
23
Female
22
21
20
Male
19
18
17
16
2000
2005
2009
2013
2017
Age 75
15
Female
14
13
Male
12
11
10
9
2000
2005
2009
2013
2017
Age 85
9
Female
8
7
6
Male
5
4
3
2000
2005
2009
2013
2017
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: statistics canada
Life Expectancy of OAS Beneficiaries
Without future mortality improvements
Age 65
23
Female
22
21
20
Male
19
18
17
16
2000
2005
2009
2013
2017
Age 75
15
Female
14
13
Male
12
11
10
9
2000
2005
2009
2013
2017
Age 85
9
Female
8
7
6
Male
5
4
3
2000
2005
2009
2013
2017
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: statistics canada
Life Expectancy of OAS Beneficiaries
Without future mortality improvements
Age 65
23
Female
22
21
20
Male
19
18
17
16
2000
2005
2009
2013
2017
Age 75
15
Female
14
13
Male
12
11
10
9
2000
2005
2009
2013
2017
Age 85
9
Male
8
7
6
Female
5
4
3
2000
2005
2009
2013
2017
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: statistics canada
Here’s the first set of numbers:
In 2000, life expectancy among men stood at 16.5 years for those aged 65, 10 for those aged 75, and 5.4 for those aged 85. Those numbers are now up to 19.1, 12 and 6.3, respectively, as of 2017.
Among women, the corresponding numbers are 20.1, 12.6 and 6.7 in 2000, and 22, 14.1 and 7.6 in 2017.
The second set of numbers, which I don’t like, given that I’m nearing 65, show a slowdown in the increase in life expectancy over time, five-year periods measured in chunks from 2003-2007 to 2013-2017.
For example, men aged 85 saw an average annual increase in life expectancy of 0.9 of a month per year between 2003 and 2007. That pace slowed to just 0.3 in the 2013-2017 period.
It may not seem like much, but I’ll take it.
Here’s another way of looking at it: OSFI cited “annual mortality improvement rates” that show a rise in longevity but “a decreasing trend in the average annual MIRs for all age groups over age 65.”
And a guide, of sorts, based on the number of deaths of OAS beneficiaries from January, 1999, to May, 2018: “There are seasonal variations in monthly deaths with the least deaths occuring in the summer months and the most deaths occuring during the winter months. In particular, the maximum number of deaths occurred in December or January every year except for 2008 when it was in March.”
Read more
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- Ian McGugan: Ottawa should consider this simple solution for curing retirement anxiety
- A jobs milestone as working Canadian seniors equal teens. (Who’s staffing fast-food joints now?)
- Freedom Never: Some Canadians seem destined for the grave still buried in debt
- Remember halcyon days and times a-changin’? Canadian baby boomers now face a housing crisis
Behind the smoke
Trading in shares of some cannabis companies has been wild, to say the least.
There’s a lot going on behind the scenes, too, as fund managers scramble to catch up.
Read our exclusive report by Andrew Willis and Christina Pellegrini.
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Markets at a glance
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Deficit wider than forecast
Ontario will run a $15-billion deficit this year, not the $6.7-billion that had been projected, Finance Minister Vic Fedeli announced as he unveiled the results of an independent inquiry into the province’s books.
Mr. Fedeli told a business crowd on Bay Street to brace for more bad news as he provided his first update on the province’s books since becoming finance minister this summer, The Globe and Mail’s Justin Giovannetti reports. He announced that along with the larger deficit this year, Ontario’s books last year were not balanced as previously thought, but were $3.7-billion in the red.
“Only when the government of Ontario truly accounts for its real deficit position can we begin to put the province back on a path to balanced fiscal sustainability,” Mr. Fedeli said.
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Editor’s note: (Sept. 21) The charts in this article have been corrected from an earlier version that reversed the results for men and women.