Floods are ravaging Vermont, wildfires have brutalized British Columbia, and every day we hear of a new part of the world where record temperatures have been reached.
Weather events are disrupting activity around the globe and prompting a new urgency toward meeting previously set climate goals. As that happens though, there will be ripple effects to other parts of the economy including the labour market. We often think of that in terms of the jobs that will be phased out as sectors restructure, but in fact environmental transformation will also create new jobs as well as demand new skills in existing ones.
A new report from the Burning Glass Institute looks at the number of actual ‘green jobs’ now in existence and in the pipeline. After analyzing 200 million online job postings in the U.S., they concluded that many jobs that have not historically been considered green now require ‘green skills.’ For example, they use the example of a network and computer system administrator who may or may not be in a green industry, but which requires incumbents to understand things like energy management, energy conservation and how to build environmental automation systems. However, the report also emphasizes that it is important to not just think of things in binary terms as ‘green’ or ‘not green’ but rather to think of green jobs as being on a continuum that is evolving and which will ultimately include all jobs.
Earlier this year the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development also took a look at green jobs, concluding that from 2011 to 2021 the share of workers in jobs where at least 10 per cent of tasks directly support sustainable development only increased to 18 per cent from 16. They also see a green transition as inevitable and necessary, but warn a lack of workers with the right skills could threaten it happening.
It’s not hard to see how that could happen. With unemployment rates around the world already extremely low, organizations in countries like Canada frequently cite a lack of qualified workers as a factor hindering production. As green skills become increasingly important, workers who have them will be in high demand and countries where those skills are scarce will be at a disadvantage. Like the Burning Glass Institute, the OECD emphasizes that over time many jobs will be transformed to incorporate green skills, whether we are talking about the work done by building inspectors or car mechanics.
The environmental transition taking place is arguably akin to an industrial revolution and it is significant that it is happening as the economy goes through other transitions as well. As opportunities grow for workers in the green economy or for those with green skills, other jobs will be on the decline. The energy sector is the prime example of a sector that must transition to meet environmental goals, which will mean the displacement of some workers. At the same time, the world is adapting to another major disruption as the advent of artificial intelligence technology is rapidly carving up established ways of getting work done, with huge adjustments ahead. We have been through industrial revolutions in the past, and through economic crises that have caused whole sectors to crumble. The move to meet climate goals is in its way as much of a disruption when it comes to the future of work.
For Canada, there is much disruption ahead. The OECD figures show that the percentage of green jobs in the country is only around 12 per cent, which is the lowest among the countries it surveys. Interestingly, the province with the highest per cent of green jobs is Alberta, which also has a high percentage of what the OECD terms ‘polluting jobs.’ This is perhaps not as surprising as it seems on the surface, because industries such as energy employ individuals responsible for environmental risks, as well as those in more traditional occupations. If we are to up the percentage of green jobs and skills nationally, we will need the right policies, but we will also need co-ordinated policies. Right now, we have policies regarding skills training and we have policies regarding the environment, but the two are not necessarily well integrated.
As to how to get it done, it will require the right educational policies centred around adults in the workplace with support from both governments and employers. As both the Burning Glass Institute and the OECD point out, there is an equity component to all of this as well and not making provision for it will only widen existing disparities. That is, the jobs that environmental change is creating disproportionately require advanced education and as well are disproportionately concentrated in some groups, while the reverse is true for the jobs at risk because of the energy transition. Women also tend to be under-represented in green jobs, although men are also overrepresented in polluting jobs.
Going forward, providing training to at-risk workers and striving to improve the quality of all jobs will be key to Canada succeeding in the green economy. That will not happen if we continue to let things unfold randomly as is now the case. Rather, it will take thoughtful policies that recognize the enormity of what is happening to the world and to the job market and careful implementation at a time when other changes are happening as well. Only if that happens will Canada get the outcomes it wants both for the environment and for workers.