A third of the way into 2024, Walt Disney(NYSE: DIS) is the second-biggest gainer among the 30 components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The stock's 25% jump this year is notable, especially since the media giant has lagged the market badly in each of the three previous years.
Now that Disney has momentum, keeping it is essential. The month of May matters for Disney because it gives an important financial update. It's also releasing the first of the films that could get its sluggish movie-studio division back on track. Let's take a closer look at what to watch in the month ahead.
May 1
This is typically a slow month for the theme parks, straddled between the end of the spring break holiday and the start of the busy summer vacation period. Disney World and Disneyland know how to drum up guests to keep their gated attractions busy. A couple of festivals that already began -- Pixar Fest at Disney's California Adventure and the International Flower and Garden Festival at EPCOT -- will run through all if not most of May.
One thing starting this month at Disney World to help keep the locals coming is V.I.PASSHOLDER Days. From the first of the month through late June, the Florida resort will reward its annual passholders with exclusive perks at its EPCOT theme park.
Guests with year-round access can pick up a complimentary Lilo & Stitch magnet, relax in a temporary passholder lounge, and explore exclusive photo opportunities. Passholders who can't make it out to Disney World's second-oldest park can still cash in with a 20% discount at DisneyStore.com from May 5 to May 24.
Image source: Walt Disney World.
May 7
If there's one day that will likely move Disney stock higher or lower in May it will probably happen next week. The company reports its fiscal second-quarter results after the market close on May 7. Expect the market to react accordingly the following trading day.
Analysts see revenue clocking in at $20.65 billion for the three months ending in March, a 5% year-over-year decline. A small dip isn't a surprise.
This year's quarter is stacked against fiscal 2023's performance that was spiked by Disney World turning 50 and the success of Avatar: The Way of Water. The comparisons won't be as kind this time around, but they won't be a deal-breaker. Revenue growth was flat last time, but the shares still pushed through to hit a new 52-week high.
The bottom line is where an upward surprise can lift the stock higher. Wall Street pros are modeling adjusted earnings of $1.03 a share, rising from $0.93 a share a year earlier. With Disney's cost-cutting efforts intensifying, the net income beats have been widening for three consecutive quarters.
Disney isn't likely to have the same long list of shareholder-delighting announcements. It threw the kitchen sink at investors in February -- including a 50% dividend increase -- to make sure it didn't fall short in the April proxy battle that the boardroom convincingly won. It will still have a lot of opportunities to impress Wall Street with a blowout performance.
May 10
Disney's sleepy start at the local multiplex could start to awaken next week. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes opens in theaters everywhere on May 10, and early advance screenings start two nights earlier.
All 15 of this year's highest-grossing domestic releases belong to non-Disney studios. This should change after next weekend.
The last film in the franchise -- 2017's War of the Planet of the Apes -- generated $147 million in the U.S. and $491 million worldwide in box-office receipts. This would be enough to make it the fourth highest-grossing film both domestically and globally so far in 2024. With ticket prices considerably higher now than seven years ago, the ceiling could be even higher.
It's not the only film that the leading entertainment stock is distributing theatrically. Daisy Ridley stars in Young Woman and the Sea, the story of competitive swimmer Trudy Ederle, who became the first woman to swim across the English Channel 98 years ago. The movie debuts at a multiplex near you on May 31. In the words of Finding Nemo's Dory, you can be sure that Disney itself will "just keep swimming" through May.
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Rick Munarriz has positions in Walt Disney. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Walt Disney. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
