The Canadian dollar was little changed against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday, holding near an earlier one-month low as a speech by Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz loomed and investors grew more nervous about a global economic slowdown.
World stocks fell as Chinese economic data slowed in October and Germany only narrowly avoided a recession in the third quarter, adding to worries about the global growth fallout from the U.S.-China trade war.
Canada is a major exporter of commodities, including oil, so its economy could be hurt by a slowdown in global growth.
“It certainly feels like a combination of macro risks and concerns that are weighing on the Canadian dollar,” said Bipan Rai, North America head, FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets. “As long you have that trade-related uncertainty, there is going to be some uncertainty with respect to the Canadian dollar.”
Last month, the Bank of Canada expressed concern about global trade uncertainty as it cut its growth forecasts and left its benchmark interest rate on hold at 1.75 per cent.
Poloz is due to speak on the fourth industrial revolution at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco on Thursday night. Canada’s central bank will publish the governor’s text at 9:45 p.m. EST.
Money markets see chances of an interest rate cut next month at about 20 per cent.
At 3:41 p.m., the Canadian dollar was trading nearly unchanged at 1.3249 to the greenback, or 75.48 U.S. cents. The currency hit its weakest intraday level since Oct. 11 at 1.3270.
U.S. crude oil futures settled 0.6 per cent lower at $56.77 a barrel, pressured by a build in domestic inventories and record production.
Canada’s new housing price index rose 0.2 per cent in September, the largest increase in two years, data from Statistics Canada showed.
Canadian government bond prices were higher across a flatter yield curve in sympathy with U.S. Treasuries. The two-year rose 8 Canadian cents to yield 1.534 per cent and the 10-year was up 72 Canadian cents to yield 1.473 per cent.
The 10-year yield touched its lowest intraday level since Nov. 4 at 1.465 per cent.
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