A dump truck works near the Syncrude oil sands extraction facility near Fort McMurray, Alta. on June 1, 2014.JASON FRANSON/The Canadian Press
The Liberals won office in 2015 in part because of a promise to take substantive action on climate. Eight years later, the results – measured by lower greenhouse gas emissions – are underwhelming.
Shortly after taking power, the Liberals signed on to the Paris Agreement. Canada pledged to cut emissions 30 per cent, compared with 2005. It was a target Stephen Harper’s government had set earlier in 2015. The Liberals lambasted Mr. Harper for not doing enough on emissions, which fell 1 per cent during his decade in office.
The Liberals devised a swath of climate polices, including the carbon tax, and in 2021 upped Canada’s Paris Agreement promise to 40 per cent, a move opposed by the Conservatives.
So far in Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s tenure, however, emissions are down only 7 per cent, based on the most recent official climate figures from 2021. Using estimates for 2022, when emissions likely ticked up coming out of the pandemic, the volume of greenhouse gases Canadians pump out are down 5 per cent under the Liberals.
All of this is already on the record but bears repeating, often, given the scale and urgency of the challenge. On Tuesday a report to Parliament from the Auditor-General’s environment commissioner detailed shortfalls in the Liberals’ climate plans and the potential to get back on track. The report points out, as this space highlighted last week, Canada is a laggard, the worst among G7 countries. Problems the auditor cited range from delays in turning ideas into real policy to a fragmented accountability in Ottawa for achieving Canada’s emissions goals.
But in a report that’s mostly about what’s gone wrong, it did highlight some good news. With current and planned policies, Canada could slash emissions by 34 per cent by 2030. It’s not enough but it would surpass Canada’s initial Paris pledge and represent a significant accomplishment, especially given previous Liberal and Conservative promises led to nothing.
Tuesday’s report underscores an important message on climate. Get the work done, as soon as possible. The Liberals have major policies pending, long delayed – starting with clean electricity regulations. This is a pattern. Another key measure, clean fuel regulations, was supposed to be done in 2019 but didn’t get finished until 2022.
The challenge will be to keep pushing forward on climate but in a smart way that doesn’t crater the economy for the sake of a few percentage points.
The truth for Canada is the bridge to a post-oil economy is going to be built with oil money.
Oil and gas emissions peaked in 2015 and are since down 4 per cent, as of 2022 estimates, largely because of federal rules to reduce methane emissions. That’s happened as oil and natural gas output has climbed to record levels.
The Liberals, as part of last year’s climate plan, set a goal to cut oil industry emissions by about 40 per cent by 2030 from 2019 levels. This space and others at the time suggested that was overly ambitious and unlikely if demand for the products remained robust. The proposed industry emissions cap needs to be carefully designed. Still, with investments in carbon capture technology (more on this in the coming days) and expected tightening of rules on methane, progress will be made.
The reality is deep cuts in oil emissions depend on predictions of steep declines in demand, which are likelier in the 2030s than this decade.
The latest hurdle is the Liberals’ sudden retreat on the carbon tax, with a politically tailored exemption for home heating oil. Alongside the Conservatives’ promise to completely cancel the tax on products such as gasoline and home heating, this stokes uncertainty and makes regulations such as clean power that much more essential.
Finally, while the Liberals must be pushed on climate, consider the likely alternative. The Conservatives have offered few ideas, as was the case in the 2019 and 2021 elections, and on Monday Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre wouldn’t say whether he stands by Canada’s Paris pledge.
The bottom line is it was probably always true Canada would fall short of its lofty 40-per-cent promise. But that’s not a failure. If Canada does succeed in cutting emissions by 34 per cent by 2030 – while safeguarding jobs and the economy – it would be a big win and on pace for net zero in 2050.