Federal election 2019: Trudeau’s Liberals have a minority government. What now? A guide to Oct. 21’s results

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Election results: The basics

• Justin Trudeau’s Liberals won a minority government on Monday, with 157 seats to the Conservatives’ 121. Now, Mr. Trudeau faces the challenge of working with other parties to address the challenges of his second mandate.
• The Liberals held their territory in the Toronto area and many of their ridings in British Columbia, despite Conservative and NDP efforts to break through in Ontario’s strategic 905 region. The Conservatives, meanwhile, dominated Alberta and Saskatchewan, and the Greens gained their first seat in Atlantic Canada. Check here for full riding-by-riding results and a breakdown of the parties’ seats by province.
• Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer warned that his party has put Mr. Trudeau “on notice” and touted the Conservatives’ win of the popular vote, with about 34 per cent compared with the Liberals’ 33. But his failure to unseat the Liberals could also revive questions about his leadership when it comes up for review next year.
• The Bloc Québécois more than tripled its seat count, largely at the expense of Jagmeet Singh’s New Democrats in Quebec. Leader Yves-François Blanchet promised that the Bloc, now the third-largest party, would leave separatism on the back burner and support legislation on a case-by-case basis, while advocating for Quebeckers’ concerns on the environment and provincial autonomy.

Who won, who lost and where

THE NEW POLITICAL MAP

By Tuesday morning, the Liberals had 157 seats, falling short of the 170 seats they needed for a majority, the 177 they had at dissolution and the 184 won in the 2015 election.

The Conservatives had 121 seats, up from 95 at dissolution; the Bloc was in third place with 32 seats, up from 10; the NDP had 24 seats, down from 39; the Greens, who won a single seat in 2015, now have three; and one Independent, Jody Wilson-Raybould, was elected.

ELECTION RESULTS 2015 VS. 2019

2015 FEDERAL

ELECTION RESULTS

SEATS WON

184

LIB

99

CON

44

NDP

10

BLOC

1

GREEN

2019 FEDERAL

ELECTION RESULTS

As of 6:30 a.m. ET

SEATS WON

157

LIB

121

CON

32

BLOC

24

NDP

3

GREEN

1

OTHERS

ELECTION RESULTS 2015 VS. 2019

2015 FEDERAL ELECTION RESULTS

SEATS WON

184

LIB

99

CON

44

NDP

10

BLOC

1

GREEN

2019 FEDERAL ELECTION RESULTS

As of 6:30 a.m. ET

SEATS WON

157

LIB

121

CON

32

BLOC

24

NDP

3

GREEN

1

OTHERS

ELECTION RESULTS 2015 VS. 2019

SEATS WON

2015 FEDERAL ELECTION RESULTS

184

LIB

99

CON

44

NDP

10

BLOC

1

GREEN

SEATS WON

2019 FEDERAL ELECTION RESULTS

As of 6:30 a.m. ET

157

LIB

121

CON

32

BLOC

24

NDP

3

GREEN

1

OTHERS

WINNERS

Liberals in Ontario: The Liberals’ stronghold in the Greater Toronto Area stayed intact, despite efforts by the Conservatives and NDP to sway the vote-rich 905 region to their side.

ELECTION RESULTS 2015 VS. 2019,

TORONTO AREA

2015

Markham

Vaughan

Brampton

Pickering

Toronto

Mississauga

2019

Markham

Vaughan

Brampton

Pickering

Toronto

Mississauga

ELECTION RESULTS 2015 VS. 2019, TORONTO AREA

2015

Markham

Vaughan

Brampton

Pickering

Toronto

Mississauga

2019

Markham

Vaughan

Brampton

Pickering

Toronto

Mississauga

ELECTION RESULTS 2015 VS. 2019, TORONTO AREA

2015

2019

Markham

Markham

Vaughan

Vaughan

Brampton

Brampton

Pickering

Pickering

Toronto

Toronto

Mississauga

Mississauga

Bloc in Quebec: The Bloc, which hasn’t had official party status since 2011, made a comeback in Quebec, where it came in second place behind the Liberals.

Opposition parties in Atlantic Canada: The Atlantic provinces voted Liberal en masse in 2015, but this time around, there are some other colours on the map: Green candidate Jenica Atwin won the party’s first riding in New Brunswick, the NDP gained a seat in Newfoundland and the Conservatives took three seats in New Brunswick and one in Nova Scotia.

Jody Wilson-Raybould: The former attorney-general, ejected from the Liberals for her stand on the SNC-Lavalin affair, kept her riding of Vancouver-Granville with 32 per cent of the vote. “This win means that it’s okay to stand up for what you believe in, to speak your truth, to act with integrity even when the implications might descend on you," she said in her victory speech on Monday night.

LOSERS

NDP in Quebec: The Bloc’s gains in Quebec came at the expense of the NDP, whose “Orange Wave” of 2011 is now largely spent. As of Tuesday, the party had just one MP left in the province.

ELECTION RESULTS 2015 VS. 2019,

MONTREAL AREA

2015

Laval

Montreal

2019

Laval

Montreal

ELECTION RESULTS 2015 VS. 2019, MONTREAL AREA

2015

Laval

Montreal

2019

Laval

Montreal

ELECTION RESULTS 2015 VS. 2019, MONTREAL AREA

2015

2019

Laval

Laval

Montreal

Montreal

Liberals in Alberta and Saskatchewan: The Liberals won four seats in Alberta in 2015, but resentment over carbon pricing and the slow progress of the Trans Mountain pipeline created an opportunity for the Conservatives, who won all but one of Alberta’s seats. Neighbouring Saskatchewan went entirely blue: Liberal cabinet minister Ralph Goodale lost his seat there, and two NDP ridings elected Conservatives.

Jane Philpott: The former Liberal health minister was, like her friend Ms. Wilson-Raybould, booted from the Liberals for her stand on SNC-Lavalin, and chose to run as an Independent. But her Markham-Stouffville riding instead went to Liberal candidate Helena Jaczek.

People’s Party: The far-right fringe party founded by ex-Conservative Maxime Bernier didn’t win any seats, and took just 2 per cent of the popular vote. Beauce, the Quebec riding where Mr. Bernier has been MP since 2006, elected Conservative Richard Lehoux.

Notable upsets

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During the campaign, The Globe’s election team identified 21 ridings that were especially close or consequential. Most of those ridings stayed with the same parties they elected in 2015, if not always the same candidate. But there were seven upsets of note (not including Ms. Wilson-Raybould’s election, already noted above):

• Calgary Centre (Alta.): Conservative Greg McLean unseats Liberal Kent Hehr
• Regina-Lewvan (Sask.): Conservative Warren Steinley takes the riding once held by Erin Weir, an NDP MP ousted from the party caucus
• Kenora (Ont.): Conservative Eric Melillo unseats Liberal Bob Nault
• Milton (Ont.): Liberal Adam van Koeverden unseats Conservative Lisa Raitt
• Trois-Rivières (Que.): The Bloc’s Louise Charbonneau unseats the NDP’s Robert Aubin
• Fundy Royal (N.B.): Conservative Rob Moore, who held the riding previously, unseated Liberal Alaina Lockhart
• St. John’s East (N.L.): NDP’s Jack Harris, who held the riding previously, unseated Liberal Nick Whalen

Notable nail-biters

In several Quebec, B.C. and Atlantic Canadian ridings, the margin of victory came down to only a few hundred votes. Ms. Atwin of the Greens won her Fredericton seat only 1.7 percentage points ahead of the Conservative candidate.

The twenty narrowest margins of victory

Per cent of vote

CON

LIB

BQ

NDP

GRN

0 %

25

50

75

100

Châteauguay-Lacolle

1.8% lead (934 vote difference)

Fredericton

1.7 (791)

Gaspésie-Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine

1.7 (637)

Shefford

1.6 (966)

King-Vaughan

1.4 (911)

Chicoutimi-Le Fjord

1.4 (614)

Argenteuil-La Petite-Nation

1.3 (672)

Miramichi-Grand Lake

1.2 (414)

South Okanagan-West Kootenay

1.2 (796)

Windsor-Tecumseh

1.1 (642)

Sherbrooke

1.1 (634)

Flamborough-Glanbrook

1.0 (650)

Cumberland-Colchester

1.0 (453)

Port Moody-Coquitlam

0.6 (333)

Hochelaga

0.6 (319)

Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam

0.6 (339)

Kitchener-Conestoga

0.5 (273)

Québec

0.4 (215)

Yukon

0.4 (72)

Richmond Hill

0.2 (112)

The twenty narrowest margins of victory

Per cent of vote

CON

LIB

BQ

NDP

GRN

0 %

25

50

75

100

Châteauguay-Lacolle

1.8% lead (934 vote difference)

Fredericton

1.7 (791)

Gaspésie-Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine

1.7 (637)

Shefford

1.6 (966)

King-Vaughan

1.4 (911)

Chicoutimi-Le Fjord

1.4 (614)

Argenteuil-La Petite-Nation

1.3 (672)

Miramichi-Grand Lake

1.2 (414)

South Okanagan-West Kootenay

1.2 (796)

Windsor-Tecumseh

1.1 (642)

Sherbrooke

1.1 (634)

Flamborough-Glanbrook

1.0 (650)

Cumberland-Colchester

1.0 (453)

Port Moody-Coquitlam

0.6 (333)

Hochelaga

0.6 (319)

Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam

0.6 (339)

Kitchener-Conestoga

0.5 (273)

Québec

0.4 (215)

Yukon

0.4 (72)

Richmond Hill

0.2 (112)

The twenty narrowest margins of victory

The twenty narrowest margins of victory

CON

LIB

BQ

NDP

GRN

Per cent of vote

25

50

75

0 %

100

Châteauguay-Lacolle

1.8% lead (934 vote difference)

Fredericton

1.7 (791)

Gaspésie-Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine

1.7 (637)

1.6 (966)

Shefford

King-Vaughan

1.4 (911)

Chicoutimi-Le Fjord

1.4 (614)

Argenteuil-La Petite-Nation

1.3 (672)

Miramichi-Grand Lake

1.2 (414)

South Okanagan-West Kootenay

1.2 (796)

Windsor-Tecumseh

1.1 (642)

Sherbrooke

1.1 (634)

Flamborough-Glanbrook

1.0 (650)

Cumberland-Colchester

1.0 (453)

Port Moody-Coquitlam

0.6 (333)

Hochelaga

0.6 (319)

Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam

0.6 (339)

Kitchener-Conestoga

0.5 (273)

0.4 (215)

Québec

Yukon

0.4 (72)

0.2 (112)

Richmond Hill

Notable landslides

The widest margins of victory were in safe Conservative seats in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

The 20 largest margins of victory

Per cent of vote

CON

LIB

BQ

NDP

GRN

0 %

25

50

75

100

Battle River-Crowfoot

80.5% lead

Bow River

78.4

Lakeland

77.6

Grande Prairie-Mackenzie

77.2

Souris-Moose Mountain

76.7

Foothills

76.4

Yellowhead

75.4

Peace River-Westlock

73.3

Red Deer-Mountain View

73.2

Cypress Hills-Grasslands

71.8

Red Deer-Lacombe

70.9

Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner

70.6

Fort McMurray-Cold Lake

70.6

Battlefords-Lloydminster

67.7

Sturgeon River-Parkland

67.5

Carlton Trail-Eagle Creek

66.6

Yorkton-Melville

64.4

Calgary Shepard

64.2

Calgary Midnapore

63.5

Sherwood Park-Fort Saskatchewan

61.6

The TWENTY largest margins of victory

Per cent of vote

CON

LIB

BQ

NDP

GRN

0 %

25

50

75

100

Battle River-Crowfoot

80.5% lead

Bow River

78.4

Lakeland

77.6

Grande Prairie-Mackenzie

77.2

Souris-Moose Mountain

76.7

Foothills

76.4

Yellowhead

75.4

Peace River-Westlock

73.3

Red Deer-Mountain View

73.2

Cypress Hills-Grasslands

71.8

Red Deer-Lacombe

70.9

Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner

70.6

Fort McMurray-Cold Lake

70.6

Battlefords-Lloydminster

67.7

Sturgeon River-Parkland

67.5

Carlton Trail-Eagle Creek

66.6

Yorkton-Melville

64.4

Calgary Shepard

64.2

Calgary Midnapore

63.5

Sherwood Park-Fort Saskatchewan

61.6

The TWENTY largest margins of victory

CON

LIB

BQ

NDP

GRN

Per cent of vote

0 %

25

50

75

100

Battle River-Crowfoot

80.5% lead

Bow River

78.4

Lakeland

77.6

Grande Prairie-Mackenzie

77.2

Souris-Moose Mountain

76.7

Foothills

76.4

75.4

Yellowhead

Peace River-Westlock

73.3

Red Deer-Mountain View

73.2

Cypress Hills-Grasslands

71.8

Red Deer-Lacombe

70.9

Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner

70.6

Fort McMurray-Cold Lake

70.6

67.7

Battlefords-Lloydminster

Sturgeon River-Parkland

67.5

Carlton Trail-Eagle Creek

66.6

Yorkton-Melville

64.4

64.2

Calgary Shepard

Calgary Midnapore

63.5

61.6

Sherwood Park-Fort Saskatchewan

Voter turnout

Voter turnout was 65.95 per cent of eligible voters, according to Elections Canada’s figures on Tuesday morning. That’s down from 68.3 per cent in 2015, though the 2019 figures don’t include voters who registered on Monday, Elections Canada says. Here’s some deeper analysis of what those turnout numbers mean, and what to look for when they’re broken down by age.

MORE READING

In depth: More on the night’s winners and losers

The key Liberal wins and losses in B.C. this federal election

B.C. voters choose Liberals, but a minority could have consequences

Canada’s divisions have been thrown into sharp relief

What does minority rule mean for Trudeau?

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In his first term, Mr. Trudeau could pass legislation without worrying too much about the opposition parties rejecting it in the House (though the Senate was another matter). Now, he doesn’t have enough seats to do that. MPs can topple his government in a vote of non-confidence or by rejecting a budget or Speech from the Throne, and he needs to co-operate with other parties to prevent that from happening.

If a confidence vote happens, the Liberals have more options to survive it than the Conservatives would to win it. Mr. Trudeau would need the support of either the NDP or Bloc (or both) to get the majority of votes, whereas Mr. Scheer would need both to succeed. But making common cause with the Bloc isn’t an attractive option for either Mr. Scheer or Mr. Trudeau, who spent the campaign warning Quebeckers not to vote for the party because of their separatist beliefs.

SCENARIOS IN CONFIDENCE VOTE

LIB

CON

BQ

170 seats

for majority

NDP

GRN

216

LIB + BQ + NDP + GRN

213

LIB + BQ + NDP

189

LIB + BQ

181

LIB + NDP

180

CON + NDP + BQ + GRN

177

CON + NDP + BQ

153

CON + BQ

145

CON + NDP

SCENARIOS IN CONFIDENCE VOTE

LIB

CON

BQ

170 seats

for majority

NDP

GRN

216

LIB + BQ + NDP + GRN

213

LIB + BQ + NDP

189

LIB + BQ

181

LIB + NDP

180

CON + NDP + BQ + GRN

177

CON + NDP + BQ

153

CON + BQ

145

CON + NDP

SCENARIOS IN CONFIDENCE VOTE

170 seats

for majority

LIB

CON

BQ

NDP

GRN

216

LIB + BQ + NDP + GRN

213

LIB + BQ + NDP

189

LIB + BQ

181

LIB + NDP

180

CON + NDP + BQ + GRN

177

CON + NDP + BQ

153

CON + BQ

145

CON + NDP

Hot issues for the new Parliament

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Climate: The Liberals pledged to increase the price they introduced on greenhouse gas emissions to $50 a tonne by 2022 from $20 now (which the Conservatives oppose), but also to build the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion (which the NDP and Greens oppose). The carbon tax is safe for now with the NDP, Greens and Bloc supporting it, but the Liberals may need to find ways to make their climate plan more aggressive to keep those parties happy. To pass energy-related legislation, the Liberals will need to work with parties that don’t want the Trans Mountain expansion. Although in a legislative showdown, the NDP, Greens and Bloc would have the opposite problem: To defeat the Liberals, they’d need help from the even more pro-oil Conservatives.

Pharmacare: Three of the four major parties want some form of nationwide universal drug coverage, but the NDP and Greens called for a faster timetable – implementation by 2020 – than the Liberals, whose $6-billion health plan was described as more of a “down payment” on universal care in the future. Minority government gives the smaller parties leverage to push for pharmacare faster, but could also weaken Mr. Trudeau’s bargaining position when he has to hammer out the details with provincial premiers.

Taxation and budgets: The Liberals and NDP each ran on pledges to raise taxes on wealthy Canadians, though they disagreed about how much – a disagreement that could re-emerge under a Liberal minority. Mr. Trudeau planned tax hikes for large companies and luxury goods, and wanted to raise the basic personal tax-free amount, currently $12,069, to $15,000 by 2023. But Mr. Singh opposed broad tax cuts, instead favouring a three-percentage-point raise in corporate tax rates.

Quebec’s Bill 21: Mr. Trudeau was the only leader to leave the door open for a possible future federal challenge to Bill 21, a Quebec law barring most public servants, including teachers, from wearing religious garments like hijabs and turbans. The Bloc’s resurgence now makes that unlikely: Mr. Blanchet is a vocal supporter of the law.

Where the political fault lines are

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After a bitter and closely fought election, the Liberals will have to heal political divisions in two regions: the West, where voter anxiety over the oil sands and the economy led them to the Conservatives, and Quebec, where the Bloc’s gains give nationalist Premier François Legault more allies in Ottawa. But neither separatism nor Prairie grievance is an immediate threat to national unity, The Globe’s Les Perreaux explains, and there are other demographic divisions that are as important but overlooked: the division between urban ridings that lean Liberal or NDP and rural ones that support the Conservatives, and the generational gap between those groups (younger voters in cities, rapidly aging populations in rural areas).

More reading

Lori Turnbull: Canada isn’t polarized – only our party system is

John Ibbitson: Party leaders must respect one another to prevent a slide into political dysfunction

What will Scheer do now?

Mr. Scheer will return to Parliament with a higher seat count than the Tories had in 2015 and a bigger share of the 2019 popular vote than other parties, but his failure to unseat Mr. Trudeau will renew internal questions within the party about his leadership, which comes up for review next year. “We are on the march, ladies and gentlemen,” Mr. Scheer said Monday, adding that the Conservatives have put Mr. Trudeau “on notice.”

What about the other parties?

Bloc

Mr. Blanchet promised the party would use its new leverage to support or oppose legislation on a case-by-case basis, and would champion Quebeckers’ environmental priorities, but would not force a separatist agenda on Parliament.

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NDP

The NDP’s pre-election gains in the polls didn’t translate into more seats, and with the New Democrats in fourth place behind the Bloc, it’s unclear what role they will play in the minority Parliament. In his election-night speech, Mr. Singh thanked supporters for an “incredible journey” and told them he’d spoken with Mr. Trudeau to tell him “we’ll be working hard on making sure we deliver the priorities that Canadians have.”

Greens

This election, Ms. May’s fourth, was going to be her last regardless of the outcome: She told The Globe during the campaign that she nearly retired after the last election, but couldn’t find a suitable replacement as leader. On Monday night, she promised that the Greens’ MPs wouldn’t support the Liberals on anything as long as Trans Mountain is still scheduled to go ahead.

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The premiers’ reaction

The first provincial premier to congratulate Mr. Trudeau on Twitter was John Horgan of B.C., whose NDP government has been at odds with Ottawa over Trans Mountain. He also thanked Mr. Singh for an “inspirational” campaign: “New Democrats from coast to coast are proud of you and can’t wait to see what comes next.”

Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe – whose government unsuccessfully sued Ottawa over its carbon-pricing framework, in a case pending appeal to the Supreme Court – said the election results “showed the sense of frustration and alienation in Saskatchewan is now greater than it has been at any point in my lifetime.” He accused Mr. Trudeau of lacking the popular mandate to govern and that he should cancel the carbon tax.

Hours later, Alberta’s Premier Jason Kenney spoke in the legislature in Edmonton, warning Mr. Trudeau that “many Albertans feel betrayed” and urging him not to formally ally himself with the parties opposing pipeline development.

But across the country in New Brunswick, Premier Blaine Higgs said the election’s outcome made him reconsider his opposition to carbon pricing and that he would try to find a framework for New Brunswick that complied with Ottawa’s rules, thus lifting the federal carbon tax from his province:

Ontario Premier Doug Ford issued a statement congratulating Mr. Trudeau and “all federal leaders,” without specifically mentioning Mr. Scheer, whose Ontario campaign stops largely stayed away from his provincial Progressive Conservative counterparts. Mr. Ford highlighted transit infrastructure, such as the Ontario Line subway, among the priorities he hoped to work on with the government.

Quebec Premier Francois Legault tweeted Tuesday that he had just spoken with Mr. Trudeau and assured him he would collaborate with Ottawa on issues affecting Quebeckers.

Global reaction

U.S. President Donald Trump – whose relationship with Mr. Trudeau has seesawed between public professions of friendship and accusations during trade talks that he was “dishonest and weak” – said on Monday night that Canada was “well served” by Mr. Trudeau’s re-election.

Here’s what some of Mr. Trudeau’s other overseas counterparts said about his re-election:

More reading

Postelection commentary

Elizabeth Renzetti: Making every vote count: It’s time for electoral reform

John Ibbitson: For Justin Trudeau, the real challenge starts now

‘This election should have been an easy victory for Andrew Scheer.’ What readers think of Trudeau’s narrow win

Campbell Clark: Trudeau must be a different kind of PM in order to navigate a tougher political map

Adam Radwanski: The vote was Scheer’s to win, but he failed to expand support beyond the Conservative base

Kelly Cryderman: A Liberal minority is what the energy industry feared most

Gary Mason: The new government’s first priority? Look West

Rob Carrick: Six ways the Liberal election win will change your family finances

Konrad Yakabuski: The Bloc is back. Get used to it

Rita Trichur: Frothy housing markets are creating a powder keg for new Liberal minority to defuse

Editorial: Canada, welcome to the age of minority government

Leader profiles

Justin Trudeau, the man in the middle

Andrew Scheer, a work in progress

Jagmeet Singh's unsinkable optimism

Elizabeth May's great expectations

Explainers

Throughout the campaign, Globe journalists analyzed the parties’ platforms on key issues from climate change to pharmacare. Here’s what you need to know.

Party platforms: A general overview

Climate policy

Family and child care

Pharmacare

Taxes and deficits

Jobs and EI

Housing reform

Immigration and asylum seekers

Video guides

What is carbon pricing?

How could national pharmacare work?

What is the Safe Third Country Agreement?

Compiled by Globe staff

With reports from Robert Fife, Marieke Walsh, Bill Curry, Molly Hayes, Ann Hui, Janice Dickson, James Keller, Kristy Kirkup, Patrick White, Daniel Leblanc, Justine Hunter, Tu Thanh Ha, Michelle Zilio, Ian Bailey, Les Perreaux, Nancy Macdonald, Andrea Woo, Evan Annett and Adrian Morrow