The Conservative leadership race: the candidates, policies and many similarities between the leading contenders

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Whoever wins the Conservative leadership contest this weekend could find themselves running to become Prime Minister in a matter of months – if not weeks. As Justin Trudeau’s minority Liberal government faltered under the weight of WE controversy and the sudden departure of Finance Minister Bill Morneau, the Prime Minister asked for the House of Commons to be prorogued until late September. When Parliament returns, the Speech from the Throne will lead to a confidence vote and, potentially, an election.

Even if an election doesn’t come soon, the next Conservative leader will take over during a tumultuous time in Ottawa. As Mr. Trudeau turns his attention to economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, the Conservatives will seek to assert themselves as the country’s voice of fiscal discipline.

Against this backdrop, Conservatives cast their mail-in ballots for the next leader of their party. The winner will be announced Sunday night, with former cabinet minister Peter MacKay and MP Erin O’Toole positioned as frontrunners. Campaign staff for both men expect it to be a close race, but also expressed surprise at the fundraising prowess of Leslyn Lewis (A fourth candidate, MP Derek Sloan, is also running).

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The first mission for the next leader will be challenging the Liberal government over its decision to grant a $543.5-million contract to WE Charity, which was then cancelled amid conflict-of-interest allegations involving Mr. Trudeau. After the appointment of Chrystia Freeland as Mr. Morneau’s replacement, the Prime Minister asked the Governor-General to prorogue Parliament until Sept. 23.

When the House of Commons returns, the Liberal government will present a Speech from the Throne and provide a vote of confidence on their new plan. If he wins the leadership, Mr. O’Toole, a sitting MP, will be positioned in the front bench of the House when Parliament resumes; Mr. MacKay would need to offer his critique of the government from outside the chamber until he can win a seat of his own.

How do you tell them apart?

Peter MacKay and Erin O’Toole do not differ significantly on policy, but have run markedly different campaigns, with Mr. MacKay leaning into his progressive roots and Mr. O’Toole embracing the legacy of former prime minister Stephen Harper.

“I think, stylistically, they’ve differed,” said Conservative strategist Tim Powers, the vice-chairman of Summa Strategies. “Substantively, they’ve had some differences, but this hasn’t been a leadership race where policy has been a great divide. … There was none of that in this campaign.”

While Mr. O’Toole and Mr. MacKay are both pro-choice and support gay marriage, the former appears to have drawn a distinction between himself and his opponent. Mr. O’Toole’s positioned himself as the “True Blue” candidate, suggesting perhaps Mr. MacKay is less Conservative than him.

Mr. O’Toole has repeatedly called to “Take Back Canada.” His website says “We are in a battle for the soul of the Conservative party,” calling it a contest about whether the party “becomes more like the Liberals or one that believes we win when we take a principled conservative stand.”

The contender considers himself “the natural inheritor of the Harper Party, changing with the times and my leadership style will be different, but I have many of the same principles as Stephen Harper.” He added: “Peter MacKay was the PC leader 17 years ago and I’m not sure we have to go back in time for a leader in 2020.”

Mr. O’Toole has run a pointed, virtually gaffe-free campaign with a carefully crafted message. He attempted to court the votes of social conservatives, whose first choice may be Ms. Lewis or Mr. Sloan. In a leaked video obtained by Radio-Canada, Mr. O’Toole told social conservatives in Quebec that he is concerned about proposed legislation to ban conversion therapy and legislation that would broaden access to medically assisted dying. Mr. O’Toole responded to the story on Twitter, saying in French that conversion therapies “do not have a place in Canada and should be abolished,” and said in another tweet that he is committed to fighting the practice of conversion therapy.

Political commentators have observed that Mr. O’Toole’s campaign has not reflected his reputation as a moderate voice within the party. Mr. O’Toole said he has read that analysis and finds it “amusing” because many of the policies he put forward are repeated from the last leadership race, when he placed third and lost to Andrew Scheer.

“I am much more worried about the state of the country, both from a national unity perspective and from an economic perspective. So I’m being far more tough and strong … my language is a little stronger, no question about it,” Mr. O’Toole said.

Jamie Ellerton, principal at Conaptus, and a former manager of media relations on Mr. Scheer’s election campaign tour, called Mr. O’Toole a “really nice guy” who has shown through Zoom meetings his knowledge of policy, but said his “True Blue” style has “felt performative.”

“He’s clearly thought with his team that this is the strategy they need to win. But I think his authenticity suffered as a result,” Mr. Ellerton said.

In an interview, Mr. MacKay said he believes there are “different shades of Blue,” but all are Conservatives. Then, he pointed out, he co-founded the Conservative Party and so he has always been “somebody associated with unity.”

And yet, Mr. MacKay’s campaign was marred by divisive comments made even before he was a candidate. Before the leadership race was under way, Mr. MacKay told a panel in Washington that Andrew Scheer lost the election because his socially conservative views on abortion and same-sex marriage hung around his neck “like a stinking albatross.” Mr. MacKay has since said he regrets the way his comments were interpreted.

“Let me address the albatross in the room,” Mr. MacKay said in his interview with The Globe. He said he tried “perhaps awkwardly and perhaps too soon, to defend Andrew Scheer,” insisting he was talking about the way Mr. Scheer was treated during the campaign rather than criticizing the leader’s policies themselves.

Mr. MacKay acknowledged the criticism of his word choice, much of which was hurled by his chief opponent. Mr. O’Toole told The Globe that when he launched his campaign, he wanted to ensure “all Conservatives were not only welcome but respected within our party. Very much a totally different approach to Mr. MacKay and his albatross comments out of the gate. That really, really hurt people within the party, just that approach.”

In addition, Mr. MacKay blamed his team after a tweet sent from his account attacked the Prime Minister for expensing $876.95 in yoga and spa sessions while running for Liberal Party leader. Mr. MacKay later told the CBC he wanted to “keep the tone civilized” and had expressed that to his supporters.

Mr. Ellerton said Mr. MacKay’s online presence and social-media gaffes had people “turning their heads,” but those missteps decreased as the campaign progressed. Mr. MacKay proved himself, especially in the debates, to be an effective communicator, according to Mr. Ellerton.

Both Mr. MacKay and Mr. O’Toole say that “experience” is the differentiating factor between the two of them. Mr. MacKay touted his time serving in Stephen Harper’s cabinet in high profile portfolios such as defence, justice and foreign affairs. Mr. O’Toole said he has more real-life experience, having spent 12 years in the military and 10 years in the private sector as a lawyer.

Common Ground

On paper, Mr. O’Toole and Mr. MacKay are not all that different on key issues. On the economy, they both pledge to review the tax code and reverse a tax increase for small businesses. They emphasize the importance of creating jobs and bolstering the economy.

Mr. MacKay and Mr. O’Toole have vowed to be tough on China and promise to ban Huawei from Canada’s 5G networks. Mr. MacKay said he would apply “maximum pressure” with respect to the arbitrary detention of Canadians Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig in China. He would look at the imposition of Magnitsky sanctions, which impose asset freezes and travel bans on human-rights abusers, and broaden Canada’s trade in the region away from China.

Mr. O’Toole would also use Magnitsky sanctions if the two Canadians were not returned within 30 days, seek out new trading markets for Canadian exporters, and stand up against how China behaves toward Uyghurs, a minority group, and the people of Hong Kong.

On the environment, both candidates oppose the federal carbon tax. Their environmental policies share some similarities, such as transitioning away from coal to natural gas and investing in technology. But Mr. O’Toole’s plan proposes “making industry pay” by forging a national industrial regulatory and pricing regime. He also proposes simplifying the tax code to support the resource sector and its actions toward reducing emissions and exporting modern and safe nuclear technology.

Winning the next election

To attract new supporters to his party, Mr. O’Toole said he will reach out to suburban and urban Canadians, such as professional women in the Greater Toronto Area, and show that he is committed to human rights and women’s rights as well as providing a strong economy for families and safe communities.

“I will be able to make sure that the Conservative Party has a policy, set of plans, for any issues that Canadians want to hear from us on, whether it’s the environment, climate change, whether it’s Indigenous reconciliation,” Mr. O’Toole said.

Mr. MacKay said his team is going to focus on being competitive in every region and that national unity and job creation are his priorities. He also said that as a Toronto resident, he understands the specific issues that are important to people in the city such as housing, transportation and employment.

“It’s going to be incumbent upon us to be very active, in not just criticizing, but contrasting and saying how we would do it differently,” Mr. MacKay said.

Mr. Ellerton said the next leader and the party has to translate “frustration with Justin Trudeau into something constructive, as opposed to just being an outrage machine.”

The next leader will have to “torch some of the tried and true talking points” used by the party in past elections, according to Mr. Powers. “The imitation of Stephen Harper’s approach may flatter Conservative supporters but it won’t win over enough Canadians to form government,” he said.

Leslyn Lewis

Ms. Lewis has raised close to $2-million and attracted supporters, despite the fact that she’s not as well known as her rivals and has had relatively little experience in politics. A lawyer from Toronto, Ms. Lewis has a masters in Environmental Studies and a PhD in Law. She is the first Black woman to run for the leadership of the Conservative Party. Ms. Lewis ran unsuccessfully as a Conservative candidate in 2015, filling in last minute after a candidate was dropped from the campaign.

Ms. Lewis told The Globe that she has been able to stand out in the race because she has “always had a knack for listening to what people were concerned about.” She said the party’s policies have been “abstract” and that they don’t relate to people.

Ms. Lewis said she stands for fundamental freedoms, ensuring democracy is intact and uniting the country. She is particularly concerned about the country’s increasing deficit. Ms. Lewis declares on her website that she is tired of seeing the Liberals accuse the Conservatives of having a “hidden agenda” particularly on social issues such as abortion. She wrote that she would advocate for anti-abortion policies.

Derek Sloan

Mr. Sloan, a lawyer, is the member of Parliament for Hastings-Lennox and Addington in eastern Ontario. Mr. Sloan’s campaign did not respond to interview requests from The Globe. He calls himself a “Conservative without apology,” on his website. In April, Mr. Sloan refused to apologize after questioning Chief Public Health Officer Theresa Tam’s loyalty to the country, asking in a Facebook video: “Does she work for Canada or for China?” He later said his comments were “deliberately” mischaracterized by the Liberals. He’s also said he is “100-per-cent opposed” to requiring Canadians to take a coronavirus vaccine or ones for other illnesses. He said being required to wear a mask in public “isn’t about science or law, it’s about control and compliance” on Twitter.

The Ballot

Conservative members voted on a ranked ballot, marking their preferred candidates from one to four. After the first round, the candidate with the fewest first-choice points is dropped and their second choice is allocated to the remaining candidates. It is not required, though, to rank all four candidates, so some members could choose to rank one, two or three candidates, which would result in subsequent rounds with fewer votes cast.

In the 2017 leadership race, Andrew Scheer narrowly defeated Maxime Bernier – with 50.95 per cent of points to Mr. Bernier’s 49.05 – on the 13th ballot. Mr. Scheer’s success was propelled largely by social conservatives. This race is expected to be similarly close.

Fundraising

Mr. MacKay has raised significantly more than his opponents, with nearly $3.1-million in donations. Mr. O’Toole’s campaign raised $2.5-million, Ms. Lewis’ team said late Thursday that they passed the $2-million mark and Mr. Sloan has raised $852,000. The fundraising data come from two interim reports filed with Elections Canada earlier this month.

Biographies:

Peter MacKay

• Born in New Glasgow, N.S.
• Worked as a Crown attorney
• Elected in 1997 to represent Central Nova for the Progressive Conservative Party
• Won the PC leadership in 2003 and later merged his party with Stephen Harper’s
• Served in Mr. Harper’s government as minister of foreign affairs, minister for the Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency, minister of national defence and minister of justice and attorney-general
• Did not to seek re-election in 2015
• Joined Baker MacKenzie in 2016

Erin O’Toole

• Born in Montreal
• Enrolled in the Royal Canadian Air Force and attended the Royal Military College
• Did his basic training in B.C., got his wings in Winnipeg and served in Halifax
• Retired after 12 years and spent the next 10 years working as a corporate lawyer
• First elected an MP in a 2012 by-election and was elected again in 2015 and 2019
• Served as parliamentary secretary to the minister of international trade and as minister of veterans affairs
• Ran for leadership of the Conservative party in 2017, but was defeated by Andrew Scheer
• Served as critic of foreign affairs for the past two years

Editor’s note: An earlier version of this story said Leslyn Lewis was the first Black woman to run for the leadership of a federal party. In fact, she is the first Black woman to run for the leadership of the Conservative Party. This story has been corrected.